Category: Science

November 30, 2023

Review: “The Coming Wave” by Mustafa Suleyman (audiobook edition)

It’s been a year since ChatGPT was released and immediately caught on. This is the first time that I can remember where a system based around artificial intelligence has really fired the public’s imagination – and the subject of AI has remained in the headlines ever since.

This recent book is by one of the founders of DeepMind, one of the highest profile AI companies (best known for systems that can beat world champion players at the Chinese strategy game Go and help advance research into protein-related disease prevention).

The main point of the book is to highlight the risks posed by the simultaneous arrival of two revolutionary technologies: artificial intelligence / robotics and synthetic biology.

These technologies will be crucial in tackling the big challenges of the 21st century – especially the climate crisis, feeding a world of 8 billion people and an aging population. We will need improving technology just to maintain our current economic levels. The trouble is that they are also general use technologies. This means that they could be put to use doing a wide range of jobs (ultimately almost all?) and being better than humans at the tasks.

The most vivid way that the subject has been discussed is AI’s potential to become an artificial general intelligence – a system more intelligent than humans that could ultimately lead to the destruction of the human race itself.

The trouble is that would seem like being a long way off and slightly preposterous (think Terminator killer robots) meaning that most people would not see the need to act. The threat is much more imminent than most people think (within the space of a few years at worst) because to pose a real threat to our economic welfare it would only take what the author calls ACI, or “artificial capable intelligence”.

Sometimes when authors delve into speculation you think that they are being fanciful and indulging their own imagination. These ideas do not seem too far fetched and are delivered in a measured way without hysterics so hopefully they will be listened to and deeply considered by many people.

The biggest impacts are going to be to society. Beyond the risk to employment, reduction in cost means that the products that these technologies enable will be available to everyone regardless of their ideals or motivations. People will be using them for good and bad. Every threat that we currently see online will be multiplied; these technologies will be used by individuals, terrorists or political organisations looking to promote their cause. As we know, it only takes a single action to provoke repercussions around the world for decades.

Then there are the more mundane issues when machines manage greater aspects of everyday life – unintended consequences of errors, unexpected edge cases, exploitation of flaws in logic or programming.

The challenge is that the only institutions able to do anything on the scale required are nation state governments – using regulation to contain the technologies. This is an area where the book is particularly strong. Are governments up to the task of managing this level of technological change? There is already mistrust in politicians in many countries around the world. Despite this, regulation is starting to happen – both the US and the EU have initial legally binding legislation either in place or underway. The UK convened an AI Safety Summit where many countries agreed a non legally binding Declaration. See the links below for details.

The book then takes on a more serious tone as we start looking at some of the concrete steps that can be taken. These are proposals, for example, that would limit the power of an AI model by limiting the hardware it runs on, having in-depth audits so that we know what is going on and analysing what is being generated by synthetic biology. It is refreshing to see a book that can put forward solutions as well as just lay out the challenges.

Despite everything, there is still a whiff of hypocrisy here that I cannot shake. It is good that we have an AI industry insider with influence in the right circles who has evidently thought through the situation and seems to have the best of intentions. No doubt there are many others in the field who lack the same principles or are willing to play more fast and loose with the technology.

However, here is someone who has started one of the most successful AI companies, sold it to Google and no doubt pocketing a lot of money in the process – enough to ride out any wave that comes along. Having failed to get Google to legally commit to the safeguards he was trying to push on them, he sells to them anyway. One course of action could have been to refuse to sell to Google if they would not follow through on his ethical concerns. His next move is to start up another AI company. Then he writes a book about how bad his work could end up being for the rest of society. For me, this attitude reminds me of the attitudes around the 2008 financial crisis: “Private profit, public debt”. A few people make all the money and societies have to bail the system out when it all goes too far. Except this time there is no bail out big enough and by the time that governments realise one is necessary it will be too late.

Anyway, despite these reservations on principals, his arguments are clear, easy to digest and persuasive. It is the best book around to explain the threats posed by, and the ethics around, the coming convergence of super-powerful technologies that will have huge impacts on the way we work and live. It is a successful mix of “popular science” book likely to appeal to a broad audience, an outline of the issues posed and some practical actions that could be taken.

This is an essential read for anyone planning on living and working during the next couple of decades.

Mini review: “Fire Weather” by John Vaillant (audiobook edition)

As I write in September 2023, Britain is experiencing an unprecedented heatwave where temperatures have topped 30ºC for at least 7 days. This is no match for the 40ºC we experienced last summer but it follows recent massive wildfires in Greece which have been declared the biggest ever recorded in the EU.

It seemed like an appropriate time to read / listen to this book. Despite it being non-fiction I raced through it in a couple of days as if it were a thriller – it is addictive and, frankly, one of the scariest things I have ever read. It is also one of the best books I have read and I encourage everyone to read it.

Initially I was surprised that I don’t remember it being reported at the time but a search shows that it was reported. Britain was 7 weeks away from voting in the Brexit referendum, an event whose run-up and aftermath was all-consuming in and of itself and my attention would have been elsewhere.

The scale of the wildfire cannot really be comprehended despite the excellent way in which the power, ferocity and speed are described or the fire’s structure and mode of operation explained.

Parallel to the story of the fire itself is a look at the growth of the industry surrounding the exploitation of the Canadian tar / oil sands. It is not oil but rather bitumen that is mined – something which has to be refined extensively before it becomes a petrol. Financially it is not cost-effective some of the time, it leads to massive environmental destruction and the pressures of the work can lead to mental health issues. The book does make you think, given all that, why do corporations and people do it? Money, pure and simple, spurred by mankind’s insatiable need for energy. I was reminded of the many times I read The Lorax by Dr Seuss to my children.

If I have any issue with the book it’s with the subtitle: “A True Story From A Hotter World” – I don’t think that it ultimately reflects the full extent of what the book delivers. It starts with a focus on the Fort McMurray fire but broadens it’s scope way beyond that. It also goes indepth on the experiences of fire in Australia and California, how the world is now experincing new types of extreme weather and how they have become year-round threats rather than isolated events in distinct seasons. But what struck me was how we get a whole section looking at the history of climate change discoveries and revelations of who-knew-what-when. For me, it came out of the blue and contrasted with the “thriller” aspect of the earlier content. By the end of that section it is perfectly clear that you cannot argue with the science behind climate change. In fact, it is so clear and effective it would make an excellent mini-book all by itself. The author then brings things back together nicely, re-introducing the characters of the McMurray fire and balancing that with how the overall situation has changed in the last few years as environmental concerns have become increasingly important and influential.

The narrator does a low-key, excellent job – I find that non-fiction books can often be read by some soulless default American accent that sucks any of the vigour out of the story. Not so here. He is a Canadian reading a Canadian story and he has a slight gravelly aspect to his voice which adds a kind of cinematic feel – just a touch of the voice in the movie trailers that start “In a world where…”. It is perfectly paced – a lot of the time I have to listen to audiobooks at 1.1x or 1.2x speed but for once I just left it on the default and let it power on. No nonsense of trying to imitate an accent and failing. Good stuff.

Also:

• The Guardian: ‘Absolutely apocalyptic’: Fort McMurray evacuees describe terror of Alberta wildfires

•The Guardian: Alberta wildfires leave Fort McMurray charred and desolate – in pictures

• The Guardian: ‘Like Nagasaki’: devastating wildfires will only get worse, new book warns

• CBC: John Vaillant’s Fire Weather looks at the Fort McMurray wildfire and a ‘new century of fire’

• CBC: Massive ’21st-century’ fires are here to stay — and we need to update how we fight them, says author

August 23, 2023

Mini review: “The Future of Geography: How Power and Politics in Space Will Change Our World” by Tim Marshall (audiobook edition)

I liked Marshall’s “Prisoners of Geography” and have dipped into the follow-up “The Power of Geography” but I was quite surprised to see that his latest book is about the final frontier – space. However, it is actually quite timely.

After a bit of history the author looks at the legal situation in relation to space. It’s clear that it is a mess. Any previous legislation is either very old or very imprecise in it’s language. Even in newer laws the wording is open to broad interpretation. Some countries have signed up to agreements, others haven’t. How are private companies going to be regulated?

The explanation of the areas of space around the Earth and the distances involved is very interesting.

When it comes to space exploration there are 3 main players – China, the US and Russia. The analysis of these countries is very good. The other countries that want to have a role in space are examined – the Europeans (France, Germany, Italy), the UK (barely), Japan, South Korea, India, Israel, the UAE, Australia and several African countries – but ultimately most fall very far behind the big three.

The military implications for space (unfortunately / unsurprisingly) take up a lot of the book’s content. What happens up there will inevitably be an extension of what goes on at ground level. The author puts forward some scenarios about how military conflict could spread out into space in what at first comes over as a bit of a flight of fancy. However, the ideas that underpin the scenarios are plausible and therefore somewhat chilling.

This is a relatively short book at around 7 hours so it is easily digested over a few days.

As an audiobook this works particularly well – the author does a good job of reading his own book. He has a relaxed style which, in particular, successfully puts over the humour. His ability to tell a story would make him an excellent dinner party guest.

If you are interested in space it is definitely worth reading. If you’re not particularly interested in space but liked Marshall’s previous books then there is still a lot to learn and chew over. Like me, you might not have thought about the implications of something that is actually going to become very real soon enough.

Also (Space seems to be in the news quite a lot recently…):

• Wired: India’s Lander Touches Down on the Moon. Russia’s Has Crashed (August 2023)

• Wired: Satellites Are Rife With Basic Security Flaws

• Security Now: Satellite Insecurity Part 1

• Security Now: Satellite Insecurity Part 2

• Malicious Life podcast: How to Hack Into Satellites

• The Guardian: Nasa aims to mine resources on moon in next decade

• The Guardian: Whisper it, but Scotland is on the verge of becoming a space superpower

• The Guardian: British satellite guided to assisted crash in Atlantic in world first

• The Guardian: Space race 2.0: why Europe is joining the new dash to the moon

• The Guardian: The Guardian: Moon’s resources could be ‘destroyed by thoughtless exploitation’, Nasa warned (January 2024)

• Lex Fridman Podcast: Jeff Bezos: Amazon and Blue Origin (Episode 405)

July 29, 2023

Film review: Oppenheimer (IMAX version)

This is the story of a complex, flawed man who played a leading role in changing the world forever.

I think this is Christopher Nolan’s best film, a hugely powerful piece of art. The talented cast all do an exemplary job. I thought it delivered a massive emotional punch. It reminds me very much of “JFK”, the Oliver Stone film that also moved me a lot when I was younger.

Let’s talk about the power of cinema. Despite being a lover of going to the cinema, since Covid and the advent of streaming services I haven’t really returned, going on the odd occasion with my daughter to see her choice of movie. This is a film that I did not want to miss on the big screen, so I went for the biggest one I could – IMAX.

The experience was extraordinary. But it isn’t down to the size of the screen and the pristine quality of the picture. It was the sound – all around me in a way that I could never replicate at home. This film has a superb soundtrack, which adds a lot to the movie in many ways, but it was also the “feel” of the sound. It envelops you – the impact of the sound in the IMAX version makes the chair you are sitting in vibrate under you. At one particular moment it literally lifted me out of my seat. It is a physical as well as an emotional journey.

Now I remember why going to the cinema can be such a special experience – a good story, beautifully realised and enriched by an environment that, together, can escort you into a different reality for a few hours.

I highly recommend you see this wonderful, haunting film – especially if you can do it in IMAX.

June 22, 2022

Podcast: Command Line Heroes

The podcast Command Line Heroes has come to an end after nine seasons and I would like to highlight it as one of the best technology-related podcasts around.

Over time the podcast has broadened the scope of the subjects covered but it has maintained its high production quality and has always been an interesting listen (with excellent transcripts if you prefer to read). It also led me to read the book Coders by Clive Thompson which is definitely worth picking up if you are a coder, want to be one or work with them.

Despite the nature of the subjects being covered it always comes across as accessible by anyone, regardless of whether they already consider themselves “tech” or not.

Here is how the seasons break down and you can pick and choose where you start as each season is self-contained:

• Season 1: Bill vs Steve, the rise of Linux, Agile, DevOps, containers, cloud

• Season 2: gaming, programming languages, contributing to open source, failure, DevSecOps, big data, NASA

• Season 3: Programming languages – Python, JavaScript, BASIC, Perl, the Bash shell, C, UNIX

• Season 4: All about hardware

• Season 5: The job of being a coder (mini season)

• Season 6: The unknown inventors

• Season 7: 1995 – the year it all changed

• Season 8: Robots, from several angles

• Season 9: Security – viruses, worms, trojans, logic bombs, botnets and more

June 9, 2021

Mini review: “Project Hail Mary” by Andy Weir (audiobook edition)

I enjoyed The Martian a lot – both the book and the film – but this is better. The ideas are great, the science is convincing (to my untrained ear), the humour dry and the plot is expertly paced.

The narration of the main character is pitch-perfect. The success rate with other accents varies, but I would recommend the audiobook over reading the book. This is an excellent example of where the use of sound can enhance the story telling experience.

If you are a fan of science fiction, especially hard science fiction, I recommend this book without hesitation. You are in for a treat.

• Spare Cycles: Mini review: “The Martian” by Andy Weir (audiobook version)

May 20, 2018

Film review: The Right Stuff

This is the film version of Tom Wolfe’s brilliant book of the same name that I read a while back. For a film that is now over 30 years old it looks remarkably good.

I really like how it is true in many ways to the book but also has it’s own personality. This is due, in part, to a brilliant (young!) cast and a sometimes morbid sense of humour. I think the film is actually better than the book at keeping the stories of the prospective astronauts (John Glenn et al) and the test pilots (Chuck Yeager) in parallel.

The film clocks in at over 3 hours but for me it flew by (…) and I enjoyed every minute.

• Spare Cycles: Mini review: “The Right Stuff” by Tom Wolfe

• The Guardian: Tom Wolfe obituary

• The Guardian: Sam Shepard obituary

• BBC Radio 4: The Infinite Monkey Cage (BBC Radio 4) – Astronaut Special

December 16, 2016

Mini review: “The Right Stuff” by Tom Wolfe

wolfe_right_stuff

This is the story of the early (American) pioneers of supersonic flight (breaking the sound barrier) and the space race. And it is astounding.

Early on the book tries to nail what it was in the personalities of the men – test pilots from the Navy and Air Force – who risked their lives to go faster or higher than the others, to prove to the world that they were one of the special few at the top of their game. They had the skills, the ego, the guts… the right stuff.

As the book progresses it changes from expressing the concepts and ideas as to what constitutes the Right Stuff to a very character-driven history, and it definitely gets better as it goes along. The first few chapters are written very much in the Tom Wolfe style – with lots of exclamation! – and quite a lot of repetition. The repetition used for stylistic effect works well. The repetition to ram an idea down your throat, not so much.

But then the story starts to blossom, the forcefulness of the writing style fades into the background and you get enveloped in the feel of the events. It is like you are being given privileged access to a special time and place; you are invited to participate in the thrill of being on the cutting edge. You are getting insight into achievements that will change history and the way that people look at the world.

The narrative focuses very much on the people involved but undeniably the two stars are ace pilot Chuck Yeager and the astronaut John Glenn. It was amazing how little I knew about the rest of the people, in particular the other 6 astronauts chosen to take part in the early space missions. I kept myself away from Wikipedia so that their stories were new to me, but these are names that have faded in the collective memory. How?

By the end of the book I was enthralled, and when I finished I had to spend a little time just thinking about the scale of the achievements involved and the sheer joyous ride I had been on. I’m sure there are several excellent and more conventional histories of the space race, but Tom Wolfe has pulled off something very special here. He has managed to bring out the emotion and the pure magic of the events.

March 5, 2016

Can we predict when ecosystems are going to collapse?

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this: