Article: The death of the URL

This is the most thought provoking article I’ve read in a while.    The author makes a valid point about different systems / walled-garden websites / app stores reducing access to and use of URLs.

The rise of the “app store mentality” is a direct attack on the web, and on the very nature of free discovery and choice built upon URL-based hyperlinks. By depriving us the ability to pick and choose which “stores” we shop from on these devices — we’re empowering a new breed of middle men and ceding to them monopoly control over our digital experience. The architecture of the web was intended to withstand such threats — but that all changes when the hardware makers get into the content business! Even though developers are beginning to see the dark side of this faustian bargain, the momentum is huge — and big business smells money.

By removing our ability to navigate, choose, and share freely — these app stores are exchanging our freedom for a promise that they’ll keep us safe, give us everything we need, and do all the choosing of what’s “good enough” for us — all starting at ninety-nine cents a hit.

I believe there are another few caveats to add to this…  As we move towards mobile internet devices, we are limited by screen size.  Native apps like on the iPhone (and others) may well be the way to go as can they give good functionality in a small area.  It can be good to have a number of apps that all do something specific very well, if that is what meets your needs.  The author’s point seems to be principally that access to the monopolistic stores is determined by the handset makers. This is not always the case – with the Android store, access is not limited and developers do not have to bend to the whimsical follies of an owner.  I think that native apps are a perfectly good way of doing things.  They are internet enabled, so they can use systems, like GPS, that go beyond simple browsing of the net.  In fact, it is this additional functionality that is pushing innovation on the web.  It is the “always on” aspect that is important.  As long as people have a free choice of apps, how a person chooses to interact with their service of choice is up to them – even if it affects URLs.

Next point:

something tells me that the next generation “PC” devices are going to revolve around slicker, streamlined interfaces that come pre-packaged with fewer choices drawn from a set of likely suspects (i.e. Facebook, Twitter, Google, Yahoo et al.).

Google Chrome OS on netbooks would appear to contradict this – its main function is to get you up and running on the web as soon as possible, as quickly as possible and as safely as possible.  It’s all still browser based, so the URL will be safe and well.  Google’s interest is that people use their services, but any web usage is good for them.  Maybe Google is not the best example.   Facebook is though.   Twitter may want to be the next “walled-garden” as a way of monetising their service, but people like Dave Winer are already discussing ways of taking the principles behind Twitter (limited characters, real-time) and making it a more “open” federated system that anyone could run but works well with others.  Taking a service and making it a protocol.  That may just kill off the dreaded “short” URL, which would not be a bad thing.

And:

I don’t know about you, but a future without URLs and without the infinite organicity of the web frightens me….. The URL and the ability for anyone to mint a new one and then propagate it is what makes the web so resilient, so empowering, and so interesting! That I don’t need to ask anyone permission to create a new website or webpage is a kind of ideological freedom that few generations in history have known!

I agree, in principle.  However, URLs are not likely to be around forever,  at least in the form that they are now.  We will still need a way of finding content, but that content may not be in the form of “pages” that require a direct address.  Interface changes will play a powerful role in this.  What has worked well for the last fifteen years may not be the best solution for the next fifteen.

The Central Nervous System for the Earth

Sensors – check.  Vast amounts of data – check.  Huge ambition – check.

Just to make sure that IBM doesn’t have this Smart thing all to itself, HP Labs has gone for it.  Check out this goal:

Create the mathematical and physical foundations for the technologies that will form a new information ecosystem, the Central Nervous System for the Earth (CeNSE), consisting of a trillion nanoscale sensors and actuators embedded in the environment and connected via an array of networks with computing systems, software and services to exchange their information among analysis engines, storage systems and end users.

Holy shit.

This is what I’m interested in:

To conduct this research, we are applying our deep core competence across the disciplines of information theory, quantum mechanics, photonics, nano-electronics, materials and mechanics to:develop efficient and flexible methods for data representation and for analysis and extraction of critical information from vast amounts of heterogeneous data

• New York Times:    A Central Nervous System for Earth: HP’s Ambitious Sensor Network

• HP Labs:   Central Nervous System for the Earth (CeNSE)

2019 through Microsoft’s eyes

It looks pretty.  No keyboards in sight.  Touch everywhere.  It may well happen – but I doubt it will be Microsoft that delivers it…  in fact, maybe it doesn’t go far enough…

Wolfram Alpha’s plans for the future

I’m sure Wolfram Alpha has a big future…  it just needs to get a little friendlier…

• New Scientist: The dizzying ambition of Wolfram Alpha

• Popular Science:  Wolfram Alpha – Best of what’s new 2009

Smart Grid: is there ever a good time? Yes – as soon as possible…

A recent article in Computer Weekly questions the timing for smart electricity meters, saying now is not the time:

Had the decision to refresh the UK’s meters been taken six years ago, when the government’s finances were stronger, there would be little argument. But the size of the national debt, the untested carbon saving, and the likely redundancies, suggest the case for smart meters now is unproven.

When we are awash with money, people want to pay less tax so that they can eye up that new house, new car or holiday on far away sunny shores.  When we screw things up and there is less money around, we are concerned with unemployment and eating cheap cuts of meat.  If we try to think of the best time to implement big change that could benefit everyone and help reduce our energy use, the answer will always be “tomorrow” or “soon”.  How about starting the preparation today?  This will take years, no doubt, but let’s invest some money (borrow some more – who would notice?)

It would be easier and cheaper to retrofit existing meters with a very basic energy meter. Consumers or energy retailers could then use existing

fixed and mobile telephone, satellite and cable TV networks, or possibly even the electricity grid for communications, he says.

The information transfer requirement is negligible, Doyle says. “Message sizes are a couple of bytes and they can update once a day. There

would be some loss of functionality versus the premium solution, but the savings would be considerable.

Screw the cost – let’s go for state of the art.  Let’s make up for all the flatscreen TVs we’ve been buying.  Let’s be the best in the world at something.  Let’s stop bidding for big events like the Olympics and the World Cup and let’s build up some valuable IP that we can sell to the world.  Let’s save some electricity and help save the planet.

• Wrong time for £10bn smart meters?

• Wired: Power to the People: 7 Ways to Fix the Grid, Now

• Smart Grids – totally wired

UPDATE:  There appears to be some good news…

• All British households will be using smart metering system by 2020:

By 2020, all British households will be fitted with high-tech “smart meters”, which will make Great Britain the first country on earth to undertake such an overhaul for both gas and electricity usage monitoring. With smart meters, readings can be taken remotely and provide homeowners with real-time data on their energy usage and help save money on bills.

• Smart meters to become mandatory in UK

How It Works: Analytics

Internet trends 2009

A couple of very interesting presentations looking at where we are today and where things are heading…

• Economy + Internet Trends – Presentation from Web 2.0 Summit

and…

Smarter Planet, smarter cities

A couple of months ago IBM started running an ad campaign under the banner of Smarter Planet.   When people asked me why I was getting into the areas of data and analysis, I showed them the ads.  Something really just clicked with me.

Smarter Planet is about looking at issues and problems more intelligently and using technology (especially data analysis) to make improvements.  It’s a really broad campaign, covering a wide range of areas.  There’s also a lot of web resources – a blog, twitter feeds, videos, podcasts.  Big Blue are betting big on this and they want people to know it.  Check out this interview with IBM’s CEO.

And it’s not just IBM – Wired UK are unlocking the Digital City this month too…

Smarter resources:

Introduction website for Smarter Planet

Building a Smarter Planet – the blog

Smarter Planet on Tumblr

Smarter Cities on Tumblr

Follow on Twitter:  @ibmbizanalytics, @smarterplanet

My Smarter Planet links – the Spare Cycles Delicious page for Smarter Planet / Smarter Cities links.

IBMAdvertising’s Channel on YouTube – get the message direct from the source

Vint Cerf on the internet today and tomorrow

A video of an excellent lecture given by Vint Cerf at the Singularity University.  This covers a number of different points:

• a little history of the internet

• the current problem of running out of IP addresses and the importance of moving to IPv6

• the growth of Asia to become the dominant user base on the internet (and the coming of non-Latin character support in domain names – eg use of cyrillic and other alphabets)

• the growing numbers of mobile devices and sensors connected to the internet, and some of the technical issues this raises

• copyright

• semantic web

Perhaps the most astounding thing that comes out of this in in the last ten minutes or so – the interplanetary internet.  Now, when I first read the phrase a while back I thought it was some flight of fancy, some far off prediction.  But it’s happening now – amazing…

Google Wave, deeply discussed

An excellent discussion of Google Wave on a recent episode of This Week in Google – as much as people can figure it out at this point in its development…

• This Week in Google – Episode 10